Our new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl predictions from our new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting

No one can predict the future but at Lightning Rod Labs we are training AI to give it its best shot. With up to date news and a small but feisty 14 Billion parameter model, our AI is boldly predicting the unpredictable. Join us as we try to answer humanity’s toughest questions.

Super Bowl Sunday is nearly upon us and, just as two years ago, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread currently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the stats are well studied, there remain many pressing questions that are less easy to pin down. Our company, Lightning Rod Labs, has been mining questions from places like polymarket.com and training a large language model to be better at predicting the future (and have seen some intriguing improvements - research paper incoming 😁). This week we turned its cold, calculating eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can give us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion parameter model which is actually on the smaller side. (Some estimates suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION parameters and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from many months ago so we have built an “agentic pipeline” to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we provide the news and watch as the AI reasons its way through unknown territory to make its best prediction possible.

And Now…The Important Questions

We posed the following questions to our AI and gauged its response. While we have seen prediction improvements from our training, use these estimates for prop betting at your own peril.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% chance

And so it seems this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI thinks Taylor and Travis’ relationship is rock solid, but a little too private for a post-Super Bowl proposal. Plus gotta factor in if the Chiefs lose. That would be an awkward proposal…

AI Reasoning:

First, I'll look at the key points from the articles. Travis has been in a relationship with Taylor since 2023. He's a big football star, and she's been supportive of his career, attending his games. They seem to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even invited her friends and family to the Super Bowl, showing her commitment.

…

Some fans are excited, while others, especially Swifties, are a bit uncertain, especially given comments Travis made about Donald Trump attending the Super Bowl. That has caused some Swifties to question how suitable Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple seems to be keeping their relationship private and not addressing the speculation directly.

…

I think the key points are the speculation and his evasive answers. While he's clearly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an important event, the odds and his responses suggest it's more of a possibility rather than a certainty. I'd estimate a low probability, maybe around 5%, considering all factors.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 “tush-pushes” during the super bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% chance

No Jason Kelce hasn’t stopped the Eagles from using their signature “tush-push” move, now its just a different front-tush being pushed. Will an AI understand what a “tush-push” is? Does an AI even know what a “tush” is? Will it factor in that the Chiefs stopped (controversy aside) Josh Allen’s similar attempts? Looks like our AI believes they’ll be using Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this game.

AI Reasoning:

Alright, I'm trying to figure out the probability that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I need to understand what exactly a "tush-push" is. From the articles, it seems like it's a technique where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, uses his legs and lower body strength to push off defenders. It's compared to pushing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that requires strength and technique.

…

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts uses his leg strength, having done a 600-pound squat, to execute the move. The article mentions that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this technique, which is pretty high. … I also need to think about the defensive strategies of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are aware of the Eagles' "tush-push" technique, they might adjust their defense accordingly, which could either increase or decrease the number of times the Eagles use it.

…

Considering that more than five seems like a significant number but possible given their confidence, I would estimate a probability around 60-70% chance. This accounts for their preparation, confidence in the technique, and the likelihood that they'll use it several times, especially if it's effective early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime show performance?

AI Final Prediction: 65% chance

While our AI may not be like us when it comes to consciousness, a soul, or any physical manifestation, it certainly has opinions on Kendrick Lamar. It was pretty uncertain, waffling back and forth, but in the end it thinks Kendrick isn’t going to back down from a fight.

AI Reasoning:

From the articles, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of criticizing Trump. He's done this in his songs, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a statement during a previous halftime show when Trump was present in 2018. That seems significant because it shows he's done it before, so maybe he'll do it again. But wait, looking at more recent articles, it mentions that Lamar is moving away from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That could mean he's less likely to address Trump this time.

However, he's also involved in a feud with Drake, which might give him reasons to make some public statements, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal issues surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a defamation suit from Drake, so maybe he's cautious about including any controversial songs in the performance. But since he won the Grammys for that track, he might still want to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a high-profile event, Lamar might feel compelled to make a statement. However, the NFL tends to avoid political statements during the halftime show, so there's a risk that such content might be restricted or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making bold moves on big stages. He's the first solo rap act to headline the halftime show, which might give him more creative freedom. Plus, his past behavior suggests he's not shy about expressing his opinions, even in public performances.

But I also remember reading that Lamar expressed fatigue about criticizing Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That could indicate he's less motivated to bring up Trump this time around, especially if he's focusing on his feud with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors—past behavior, current shifts in focus, legal issues, and the event's context—the probability seems to be moderately high, maybe around 65%.

Will Andy Reid eat a cheeseburger on screen after the super bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% chance

Lets be honest, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who doesn’t? Will the fact that our AI has never tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its prediction? Looks like theres somewhat of a chance that if the chiefs taste victory, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

AI Reasoning:

From the articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger during a Super Bowl celebration. Bradshaw later apologized for the joke, saying he didn't mean to cause offense and that he actually found it humorous himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which might indicate he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.

Looking at the articles, it mentions that Andy Reid is a food enthusiast and loves cheeseburgers. There's an article specifically about his love for food, which suggests that he's a person who enjoys eating, especially with his team. So, if there were plans to celebrate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would partake in a cheeseburger, especially if the situation is on screen for a celebration.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% chance

“Tails never fails?” You can’t trick the machines!! Betters leading up to the superbowl have been predicting the coin toss and 53% are predicting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 super bowls. Potentially lucrative? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Definitely . Luckily our AI can’t be tricked and thinks anything can happen when that coin goes in the air.

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the probability that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I know that a coin toss is supposed to be 50/50, but there's some historical data that might influence this prediction.

First, I read through the articles provided. They all mention the historical statistics of Super Bowl coin tosses. It seems like tails has come up more often than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has been the result 30 times, which is about 52%, while heads has been 28 times, which is about 48%. So, based purely on history, tails has a slight edge, but it's not a huge difference.

However, I remember that the outcome of a coin toss is generally considered random. The slight historical edge for tails could be due to chance. But when making predictions, sometimes people weigh historical data even if it's not statistically significant. So, I should consider whether this historical bias should influence the probability.

…

After thinking about it, I decide that while the historical data shows a slight preference for tails, it's not statistically significant enough to move the probability away from 0.5. So, I'll go with 0.5 as the probability, acknowledging that the slight historical edge exists but doesn't override the fact that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.

Will the referees cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% chance

We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gonna help him win. If I wasn’t born and raised in Kansas City (I promise we didn’t inject pro-Kansas City training data) I would probably think the same. BUT, its official now because our AI says the chances are only 1% (hmmmm….. 1% is still kind of high when it comes to fraud on a national scale). Looks like the Chiefs will have to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the probability that the referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a pretty serious accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a lot of articles that talk about conspiracy theories suggesting referees are biased towards the Chiefs. People are pointing to some questionable calls in recent games, especially the AFC Championship Game. That does seem to spark some skepticism. I can see why fans might get frustrated when their team loses due to what they perceive as bad officiating.

But then I read that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "preposterous" and "ridiculous." They say there's no evidence of systematic bias. That's a strong statement from the people in charge. If they're denying it, it might mean there's no real basis or they would have addressed it differently if there was some truth to it.

Looking at the articles, several sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the officials are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They also mentioned that statistical analysis doesn't show any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For instance, Mike Pereira from FOX said data shows the Chiefs have been penalized more since 2022. That's interesting because if they were getting special treatment, you might expect fewer penalties, right?

…

So, putting it all together, the probability that referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is probably very low. Maybe not zero because you can't rule out every possibility, but extremely unlikely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth watching the game still? I guess I’ll have to wait and see how the game turns out before we unleash this upon the stock market. Fingers crossed for a good game! And hey, if it turns out our AI was wrong about everything, at least it can learn from this.

GO CHIEFS!